Treat TB

Developing Modelling Methods for Country Guidance

The TREAT TB modelling collaboration for new diagnostic tools is a component of the TREAT TB Diagnostic Tools Initiative.  Several technical partners have worked together to create a comprehensive modelling approach that offers improved guidance to managers and policy-makers in high-burden countries regarding the packages of diagnostic tools most suitable for their epidemiological settings as well as the health system requirements associated with the adoption and implementation of these tools on a large scale.

This is an innovative approach for diagnostic modelling that blends traditional transmission modelling with health systems modelling concepts.  Transmission modelling predicts the potential impact of new tools on the transmission of TB within a population through the analysis of key questions such as: how well do new tools offer accurate diagnosis of large numbers of infectious patients; how much faster do they reduce the time to treatment initiation; and do they decrease the number of patients lost to follow up.  Health systems modelling predicts the potential impact of new tools on the functioning of health systems through the analysis of key operational questions such as: what are the professional and human resources requirements, and what are the costs associated with the introduction and scale-up of new tools.  As new diagnostic tools continue to emerge at a fast pace and international recommendations are modified as a result, this combined approach to diagnostic modelling is much needed to give national-level policymakers the information necessary for making important decisions on the adoption of diagnostic tools packages.